Putin & Oreshnik vs. Game Theory

Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to target key locations in Kyiv using Russia's new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik. He claims that multiple strikes with this missile could have a destructive power comparable to a nuclear attack. (The Times)

Putin's statements come in response to Ukraine's use of Western-supplied long-range missiles against Russian territories. He asserts that the Oreshnik can bypass modern air defense systems, making it a significant threat. (NY Post, November 28, 2024).

Game theory can shed light on Putin's potential actions and their strategic implications.

Payoff Matrix

Let's integrate payoffs into a game-theoretical model to analyze the situation in a more objective manner. Payoffs reflect political, economic, and military gains or losses for Russia and the West/Ukraine, based on potential outcomes. These payoffs will reflect the political, economic, and military gains or losses involved.

Escalation vs. Diplomacy

Russia's Actions	West/Ukraine Response	Russia's Payoff	West/Ukraine's Payoff
Escalation (Missile Use)	Military Retaliation	-50 (economic/military loss, sanctions)	-30 (regional instability, risk of broader war)
	Strategic Restraint	+20 (demonstration of strength, territorial gains)	-10 (credibility loss, increased risk)
Diplomacy	Engage in Talks	+10 (sanction relief, stability)	+20 (de-escalation, economic stability)
	Increase Support to Ukraine	-20 (domestic backlash, economic strain)	+30 (weaken Russia further, regional stability)

Explanation of Payoffs

1. Escalation:

   • Russia's Payoffs:

     • Using Oreshnik missiles may yield gains (+20) with limited retaliation, showcasing dominance and undermining Ukraine’s morale.

     • Severe retaliation leads to catastrophic losses (-50), including deeper sanctions and possible NATO involvement.

   • West/Ukraine's Payoffs:

     • Retaliating militarily incurs losses (-30), including regional destabilization and risks of direct NATO-Russia conflict.

     • Strategic restraint avoids escalation but undermines credibility (-10).

2. Diplomacy:

   • Russia's Payoffs:

     • Sanction relief and potential de-escalation provide moderate gains (+10), though at the cost of perceived weakness.

     • If the West intensifies support to Ukraine, Russia will suffer losses (-20) due to prolonged conflict and further economic strain.

   • West/Ukraine's Payoffs:

     • Engaging in talks offers significant gains (+20), reducing risks and stabilizing energy markets.

     • Increasing support for Ukraine strengthens its position (+30) and pressures Russia.

       
       

Strategic Insights Using Game Theory

Nash Equilibrium

A Nash Equilibrium arises when neither party gains by unilaterally changing its strategy.

• Equilibrium Point:

  • Russia: Escalation without actual missile use.

  • West/Ukraine: Increase support to Ukraine.

  • Payoffs: Russia -20, West/Ukraine +30.

This mirrors the current situation—Russia threatens escalation to deter Western involvement, while the West arms Ukraine without direct confrontation.

Sequential Game (Dynamic Model)

Russia and the West act sequentially, each player responding to the other's moves.

Scenario:

1. Russia's First Move: Threatens Oreshnik missile deployment.

   • If the West increases support, Russia incurs a -20 payoff.

   • If the West de-escalates, Russia gains a +20 payoff.

2. West's Response: Weighs costs of retaliation vs. restraint.

   • Retaliation: -30 for the West and -50 for Russia.

   • Restraint: -10 for the West and +20 for Russia.

     
     

Graphical Representation of Payoffs

A bar chart highlights payoffs for Russia and the West/Ukraine across different strategic scenarios. It reveals heavy losses for both sides in escalations and more favorable outcomes through diplomacy or restraint. This reinforces the idea that both parties would benefit more from de-escalation, though the immediate incentives might favor continued strategic threats and countermeasures.

Payoffs in Escalation vs. Diplomacy

The Tomorrow Will Worry About Itself

Matthew 6:34 says, “Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”

Only time will tell if this AI prediction holds true. Still, it seems more reliable than Tarot cards or guesswork, don’t you think?

P.S. Moscow, December 26, 2024 (Prensa Latina) Russia might use the Oreshnik missile system again if necessary, President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday. "If it is necessary and we see that the use of more powerful medium-range weapons is required, of course, we will use it. But we are in no hurry," the Russian president told reporters, after the conclusion of the Summit of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council.